Towards a Better Handicapping Contest – Part 2

If you asked most professional poker players what World Series of Poker (WSOP) event they would be proudest about winning, I think few would say the $10K buy-in No-Limit Hold-Em (NLHE) main event so popularized by ESPN. The large crowds and the nature of NLHE means that luck plays a much larger role in a successful outcome for those seasoned veterans. (They might say any schmo can suck out a straight on the river to beat my set, in the parlance).

I think most would say they would prefer to win the 50K HORSE event. HORSE combines, in a rotating tournament, five different types of poker that test different skills and play-styles. (That’s Hold-Em, Omaha, Razz, Stud, Stud-Eights or Better). I’m a fair Hold-Em player (positive lifetime ROI) and I can honestly say I’d have a better shot at winning a 10,000 person hold-em tournament than a 100 person HORSE tourney. I simply haven’t studies the other four games – I would very much be the dead money at the table.

Given the stakes and the multi-game skill involved, the WSOP HORSE tournament winner very rightly deserves the prize earned. I think the HORSE model is one that could be implemented for a skill-determining horse racing handicapping contest. The idea would be to combine the structures of different contests while introducing novel scoring mechanisms. Below, I have some suggestions that might get racing contests closer to that outcome.

  1. Combine the two types of Win-Place contests today, live scoring and upfront picks – if 50% of your score is determined by who you really think will win 2-4 hours in advance and the other half determined by assessing conditions, picking logical longshots, or reaching for a score, you have diminished (but certainly not eliminated) the element of luck inherent in either scenario.
  2. Utilize the win parlay – A frequent argument from contest players is that they want to be rewarded for picking winners. A parlay component would aid that. Say, for example, 20% of a hypothetical contest bankroll was bet on each race. With live scoring, contestants who picked winners early would be able to wager additional dollars on their next pick. (If you have $100 to start, bet $20 on a 2-1 horse that wins, the next round (with $160 in bank, you may bet $32). First-race losers only have 20% of $80 to bet ($16).
  3. Bowl for picks – Inspiration can be found in the most unlikely of places. Bowling (that of the ten pins and an alley) has one of the very best mechanisms for rewarding streaks and consistency: a strike adds the next two rolls to your total; a spare one. Apply the same to your handicapping contest – a win gets you 50% payout of your next two races, a place your next one (or some other percentage)
  4. Devise synthetic pick-Xs –  Allow a portion of the contest bankroll to be dedicated to picking potential winners of a set of races. If in an 8-race contest, have 2 potential Pick-4s that the contestant try to hit with a hypothetical (say $200) bankroll. This would identify skill in ticket-making (very valuable in handicapping, generally) but would lead to an interesting set of choices. Should you heavily lean on favorites for more than the minimum (say $1) or spread? The payout would be determined by a simple parlay of the four winners.
  5. Show Parlays – Again, portion the bankroll for a show parlay over all races. Rewards consistency for identifying competitive horses, but not producing huge multiples.
  6. Rolling Doubles, Pick 3s – Like options 3 and 4, rewards streaks and consistency.

Without a doubt, these scoring ideas trade simplicity for rewarding skill. To implement properly, the holder of the contest must be very thoughtful about how to weight the various elements. A lot of trial and error will probably be involved. That said, I have been tossing around a handicapping contest design around for some time. This is a first iteration, but I believe it would be a fun contest to play.

  1. 40% Weighted Upfront Picks, Win-Place-Show, Uncapped – This is designed to reward handicapping in advance of the event. The show payoffs reward identifying longshots that may figure into payouts, but may not win. Uncapped winnings reward identifying horses whose morning line do not reflect its eventual payout – a handicapping skill in and of itself.
  2. 40% Weighted Live Scoring, Win-Place, Capped (20-1, 10-1) – The traditional handicapping design. Allows players to change picks to changing conditions and longshot players to get back in, but with a lower chance of catching up to those who handicapped correctly in the first place.
  3. 20% Parlay, Live Scoring – Win, Capped (20-1) – Rewards consistency of picks in order to maintain a bankroll. Picks can be changed to reflect conditions. Multi-winners should have larger bankrolls into final races. Cap evens out impact of large longshots.

Given the ubiquity of free tools, like Google Sheets, to track this information, such a contest would not be too difficult to coordinate. It may be somewhat difficult for a 10th place contestant to figure out how exactly to bet the final race to make the top 5. You know what, that’s okay – the simple designs make it too easy.

If my work and life allows, I may inaugurate a contest like the above. Do stay tuned.

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