Inspired by this post at Equinometry, I am writing down my handicapping process in an effort to be more consistent at betting the races. Lenny’s post – and his entire blog – is solid throughout, and touches on a lot of the same topics I want to.
My Handicapping Process
- Glance over whole card, find races I like to bet – features, stakes, large (8+ fields), maidens – and ones to lay off (short fields, short fields, short fields)
- Look at the conditions of a given race
- Look at the morning line odds, identify favorites, noting one or two reasons for favoritism
- I use Brisnet Ultimate PPs, so I’ll look at the upper right of the past performance, noting Speed Figs at Track, Surface, Distance and Recent. Looking for outliers among non-favorites can be useful
- Handicap the Pace Scenario. BrisPPs pre-note running style, making it pretty easy to sketch out pace scenario. Again, I like to look for outliers, esp. lone Es among Ps and Ss or lone Ss among a lot of Es
- Check trainer/jockey angles after this
- Look at the running lines, noting class of previous races especially, and look for similarities to current conditions. Also, try to figure out if the trainer has targeted this race in a meaningful fashion.
- Look at recent works
- Look at pedigree stats in maiden races; need to develop something similar for turf races
- Plot out betting strategy
Of all these things, I feel like I’m worst at 10, but I’m open to the idea that it’s actually 1-9 I’m bad at.